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Elli Benaiah's avatar

This analysis shows how tightly coupled these systems are. But it also raises a harder question: if these linkages are visible now, should they not have been anticipated earlier? In conflicts framed as existential, foresight becomes part of the strategy, not an afterthought.

Red Sea Futures's avatar

Indeed. And, as usual, many /most of them were... whether the current systems talk to one another, and whether those in making policy listen, is another matter altogether.

Elli Benaiah's avatar

The pattern repeats: outcomes are announced as resolution, even “peace in our times”, but the fact is that the systems that produced the conflict remain largely untouched, because the motivation to dismantle them is interest-based and not principle-based. At that point, the issue is no longer foresight, but what we choose to do with it.